Special Issue
Population and Development in China: A Revisit
Introduction
Population and Development in China: A Revisit
Introduction
Several new developments in the economy, government policy, and technology warrant a revisit on the population issue in China. First, in 2015 the Chinese government announced that it would allow couples to have two children. Second, anecdotal evidence suggests that many wealthy and middle-class Chinese are migrating from China to developed countries such as North America, Europe, and Australia. Third, the rapid development in medical sciences and artificial intelligence is fundamentally changing how the elderlies live and are cared for.
All these changes call for a revisit on the issues of population in China. We need to carefully re-consider from scientific point of view the following questions:
• What are the population problems in contemporary China? Is population growth a problem? If it is, in terms of what--population size, birth rates, death rates, age composition (fraction of working age, working, elderly, retired, school age, military age, etc.), sex ratio (at birth), marital status, educational attainment, health, migrant origin, urban-rural, ethnic, reproductive health services, food, water and other critical inputs, waste removal capacity, general environmental situation, etc.?
• What is the impact of the new two-child policy? What is its effect on fertility rate? Is it effective in slowing down aging? Does it change people’s attitude toward having children?
• What is the impact of Chinese migration on China and the world? What is the magnitude of wealthy and middle-class Chinese migrating to the developed countries? What is the impact of such migration—economic, political, and cultural—on the home country and host country?
• How does the technological development impact aging in China? Specifically, how does the advancement in medical sciences affect aging in China? How does the development in artificial intelligence and the robot industry affect old age care in China?
• In sum, how do the above new issues affect the population issue in China, and what policies should we recommend to the government?
In addition to the above urgent questions, we also welcome papers that discuss more general issues of population in China, such as topics on the historical, present and future demographic courses that impact China and beyond for this special issue.
The issue selected 14 papers, with seven in English and seven in Chinese, which will be published in two volumes. This is the first volume with the seven papers in English.
The first paper by Song and Liang on the new emigration from China reviews the scholarly literature on emigration from China focusing on the post-1949 period, including policy changes and patterns of emigration over time, and possible causes of emigration and impacts for migrant origin communities and China as a whole. The authors also explore how new patterns of emigration from China in the 21st century affect migrant destination countries. Finally, the paper discusses and identifies future research directions in this field.
In the next paper, Zhao, Zhou and Tu study the effect of regional socio-economic features of the destination of floating population in China. Based on the data of 2015 National Migrants Dynamic Monitoring Survey and relevant statistical yearbooks, authors discuss the regional socio-economic features of the residential intention of floating population in destination place. They found that the improvement of socio-economic status (SES), and living with spouses, will significantly promote the residential intention of floating population. The decision process is rational and is made by individual and family based on the interaction between the individual/family characteristics and the regional-level socio-economic development features of the destination.
The third paper is by Chou and Tung, which examines China's policy to attract global human capital and the response from Taiwanese government to the pressure of talent individuals emigrating to mainland China. These Taiwanese authors find that the Chinese government has developed a variety of strategies, including loosening its employment regulation, incorporating Taiwanese employees in the bianzhi (strength) system and establishing an experimental zone, toward talented and skilled individuals from Taiwan. On the contrary, the Taiwanese government was ineffectively to react to such policy, even the number of Taiwanese workers moving to mainland China is growing. The authors argue that the decrease of developmental state in Taiwan and the non-credible threat of skilled workers' exit together explain Taiwanese government's weak response.
In the fourth paper, Lam and Tu review Hong Kong’s immigration history and its interrelatedness with the socio-economic development in China. One-way permit system introduced in the 1950s, featured as a point-based system to enable the eligible Mainland residents to settle in Hong Kong for the sole purpose of family reunion. Due to a reversal of cross-boundary marriage pattern, the quota of the one-way permits was concomitantly under-utilized. After reform and open door policy in China, one-way permit holders predominantly were economically inactive before moving to Hong Kong and unattractive to alleviate the labor shortage in Hong Kong. This system creates many problems such as the split families, quota misuse by the mainland China officials, and the difficulty of one-way permit holders to integrate into Hong Kong society. A comprehensive population policy entails the departure from the colonial legacy to give the HKSAR government authority to vet and approve the applications.
The fifth paper by Wang and Wei studies the family structure and family development ability in China based on the China family panel studies. The family structure changes rapidly under fast economic development and demographic transition. Family size tends to be miniaturization and diversification. Nuclear family is still the most common family type in China and nuclear family is integrally better than the others. Stem and joint families with two generations are also relatively popular. The single parent family is still relatively poor and elderly family particularly the widowed one needs more attention and support from their children, the government and the society. In the process of family life cycle, the development ability is worsening gradually from the formation to the disintegration of family.
Lu and Guo in the sixth paper study the trend of health indicators of the elderly in mainland China for the period of 1998-2014, using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) data to measure and estimate the changing process of health indicators of the elderly. Their findings indicate that the average health indicators do not have significant change during the entire study period. However, after controlling age and cohort effects, a deterioration in health index reveals when the elderly grow solder. In addition, the health levels of same cohort decreased with age.
The last paper by Zhou shifts our attention to study fertility intention among Tibetan women in Lhasa. Since the initiation of China’s one child policy, very few studies on the fertility intention of Chinese ethnic minority women. This paper discusses fertility intention and factors behind such intentions among Tibetan women in Lhasa, based on data collected randomly in the city. The results show that Tibetan women prefer1-2 children. Family finances, lack of energy and time, as well as painful delivery experiences seem to be major reasons for not wanting more children. The author also examines different aspects of Tibetan culture that may affect personal fertility intentions, including religious beliefs, marital structure, and loosely implemented population policy in the region.
All these changes call for a revisit on the issues of population in China. We need to carefully re-consider from scientific point of view the following questions:
• What are the population problems in contemporary China? Is population growth a problem? If it is, in terms of what--population size, birth rates, death rates, age composition (fraction of working age, working, elderly, retired, school age, military age, etc.), sex ratio (at birth), marital status, educational attainment, health, migrant origin, urban-rural, ethnic, reproductive health services, food, water and other critical inputs, waste removal capacity, general environmental situation, etc.?
• What is the impact of the new two-child policy? What is its effect on fertility rate? Is it effective in slowing down aging? Does it change people’s attitude toward having children?
• What is the impact of Chinese migration on China and the world? What is the magnitude of wealthy and middle-class Chinese migrating to the developed countries? What is the impact of such migration—economic, political, and cultural—on the home country and host country?
• How does the technological development impact aging in China? Specifically, how does the advancement in medical sciences affect aging in China? How does the development in artificial intelligence and the robot industry affect old age care in China?
• In sum, how do the above new issues affect the population issue in China, and what policies should we recommend to the government?
In addition to the above urgent questions, we also welcome papers that discuss more general issues of population in China, such as topics on the historical, present and future demographic courses that impact China and beyond for this special issue.
The issue selected 14 papers, with seven in English and seven in Chinese, which will be published in two volumes. This is the first volume with the seven papers in English.
The first paper by Song and Liang on the new emigration from China reviews the scholarly literature on emigration from China focusing on the post-1949 period, including policy changes and patterns of emigration over time, and possible causes of emigration and impacts for migrant origin communities and China as a whole. The authors also explore how new patterns of emigration from China in the 21st century affect migrant destination countries. Finally, the paper discusses and identifies future research directions in this field.
In the next paper, Zhao, Zhou and Tu study the effect of regional socio-economic features of the destination of floating population in China. Based on the data of 2015 National Migrants Dynamic Monitoring Survey and relevant statistical yearbooks, authors discuss the regional socio-economic features of the residential intention of floating population in destination place. They found that the improvement of socio-economic status (SES), and living with spouses, will significantly promote the residential intention of floating population. The decision process is rational and is made by individual and family based on the interaction between the individual/family characteristics and the regional-level socio-economic development features of the destination.
The third paper is by Chou and Tung, which examines China's policy to attract global human capital and the response from Taiwanese government to the pressure of talent individuals emigrating to mainland China. These Taiwanese authors find that the Chinese government has developed a variety of strategies, including loosening its employment regulation, incorporating Taiwanese employees in the bianzhi (strength) system and establishing an experimental zone, toward talented and skilled individuals from Taiwan. On the contrary, the Taiwanese government was ineffectively to react to such policy, even the number of Taiwanese workers moving to mainland China is growing. The authors argue that the decrease of developmental state in Taiwan and the non-credible threat of skilled workers' exit together explain Taiwanese government's weak response.
In the fourth paper, Lam and Tu review Hong Kong’s immigration history and its interrelatedness with the socio-economic development in China. One-way permit system introduced in the 1950s, featured as a point-based system to enable the eligible Mainland residents to settle in Hong Kong for the sole purpose of family reunion. Due to a reversal of cross-boundary marriage pattern, the quota of the one-way permits was concomitantly under-utilized. After reform and open door policy in China, one-way permit holders predominantly were economically inactive before moving to Hong Kong and unattractive to alleviate the labor shortage in Hong Kong. This system creates many problems such as the split families, quota misuse by the mainland China officials, and the difficulty of one-way permit holders to integrate into Hong Kong society. A comprehensive population policy entails the departure from the colonial legacy to give the HKSAR government authority to vet and approve the applications.
The fifth paper by Wang and Wei studies the family structure and family development ability in China based on the China family panel studies. The family structure changes rapidly under fast economic development and demographic transition. Family size tends to be miniaturization and diversification. Nuclear family is still the most common family type in China and nuclear family is integrally better than the others. Stem and joint families with two generations are also relatively popular. The single parent family is still relatively poor and elderly family particularly the widowed one needs more attention and support from their children, the government and the society. In the process of family life cycle, the development ability is worsening gradually from the formation to the disintegration of family.
Lu and Guo in the sixth paper study the trend of health indicators of the elderly in mainland China for the period of 1998-2014, using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) data to measure and estimate the changing process of health indicators of the elderly. Their findings indicate that the average health indicators do not have significant change during the entire study period. However, after controlling age and cohort effects, a deterioration in health index reveals when the elderly grow solder. In addition, the health levels of same cohort decreased with age.
The last paper by Zhou shifts our attention to study fertility intention among Tibetan women in Lhasa. Since the initiation of China’s one child policy, very few studies on the fertility intention of Chinese ethnic minority women. This paper discusses fertility intention and factors behind such intentions among Tibetan women in Lhasa, based on data collected randomly in the city. The results show that Tibetan women prefer1-2 children. Family finances, lack of energy and time, as well as painful delivery experiences seem to be major reasons for not wanting more children. The author also examines different aspects of Tibetan culture that may affect personal fertility intentions, including religious beliefs, marital structure, and loosely implemented population policy in the region.
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